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Saturday 27 June 2015

No, That Mining Industry Report Doesn't Mean Wind Turbines Are Hazardous

Graham Lloyd, Environment Editor at The Australian, shuns the idea of reporting information along the lines of scientific evidence. His latest piece (essentially now a weekly column on 'wind turbine syndrome') presents the viewpoint that people are sick due to the presence of wind turbines as a medical diagnosis, along with bits and pieces of scientific research. 

If this happened in a medical clinic, the health professional would have their licence revoked. On the pages of a national newspaper, it's seemingly okay. It's worth breaking down his latest piece a little bit, to get a better understanding of why this approach gets traction. 

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"Each morning fine-wool grower Ann Gardner broadcasts her wind farm woes to an unreceptive world. Politicians, shock jocks, journalists and anyone Gardner hopes will listen are included as recipients of uncomfortable missives that outline the “torture” of living next door to Australia’s biggest wind farm at Macarthur, Victoria. Gardner is used to being ignored, unlike her neighbours, Hamish and Anna Officer, who routinely are quoted as model wind farm devotees"

The idea that wind farm opponents are ignored is pretty strange. The Prime Minister has adopted their cause, alongside the tenth government inquiry in to wind farms designed to allow opponents to air their grievances. A new government role has been created solely for the purpose of receiving wind farm complaints, and money is being re-directed towards scientists who will be tasked with testing their claims. 

Ann Gardner has received full write-ups in The Australian, and has been quoted in media here, here, here, here, here and here, just to provide a few examples.

"Gardner contends the failure to report the plight of the Gares or the full picture for the Officers is typical of the one-sided treatment the wind turbine issue has received. She says much of the media has shown itself willing to misconstrue findings from the National Health and Medical Research Council and suggest research had cleared wind turbines of ill effects. In fact, the NHMRC said only limited, poor-quality research was available and the issue of wind farms and health remained an open scientific question."

This is a fairly common assertion - the creation of a false dichotomy. It's why the question 'Yeah, but you support more research, don't you?' is raised so frequently by wind farm opponents, as if the existence of scientific investigation is enough to incriminate wind energy. It's satisfying for someone who's faced with the task of asserting that wind turbines are dangerous, without having any evidence to back it up. 

"And a new study by researchers from Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine have found “the odds of being annoyed appear significantly increased by wind turbine noise”. The research, published in Environment International, has found wind turbine noise significantly increases the odds of experiencing sleep disturbance, and results in lower quality of life scores."

Another common tactic is to frequently switch between hypotheses. 

Wind farm opponents simultaneously claim that audible noises causes stress, and that inaudible infrasound causes health impacts. The first claim has some truth to it; and it's used as a wedge to support the second claim.

They're both very different, but as you can see above, Lloyd sees no fault in using evidence for one to support the other. Lloyd intentionally excludes some key sentences from the study's authors, who write that: 

"Further, visual perception of wind turbine generators was associated with greater frequency of reported negative health effects. In conclusion, there is some evidence that exposure to wind turbine noise is associated with increased odds of annoyance and sleep problems. Individual attitudes could influence the type of response to noise from wind turbines"

Lloyd left those words out for a reason, I suspect. Lloyd goes on: 

"Publicly, the wind industry has an army of supporters ever ready to rubbish claims that wind farms can have any effect on health. But there is evidence the wind industry has known about the impact of infra­sound for more than two decades"

Lloyd repeats the myth that NASA found that wind turbines cause sickness, and that the wind industry has conspired to bury the research. It's absurd. And, on he goes....

"A federal Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism report into airborne contaminants, noise and vibration, published in October 2009, says “sound in the frequency range below 20 hertz is normally defined as ‘infrasound’ and can be heard (or felt) as a pulsating sensation and/or pressure on the ears or chest”.......The report does not refer to wind turbines but it accurately describes many of the complaints that are being made"

It'd be weird, in any other field, to claim a technology is dangerous, and then provide supporting evidence that literally fails to mention the technology. The reason this is acceptable, here, is based on the assumption that any exposure to infrasound is dangerous, regardless of the amplitude or the frequency. 

Again, the things that Lloyd chooses to exclude are the most telling. The following is from the last paragraph in the section he quotes: 

"Factors such as the attitude or mood of the person, his or her environment, the degree of arousal or distraction experienced, and whether the noise is felt to be an invasion of privacy or disruptive, will dictate personal response. This is important for shift workers who sleep during the day. The predictability of noise and how frequently it occurs will also influence the reaction"

In fact, the handbook is actually about the mining industry:

"LEADING PRACTICE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY"

As it happens, blasting the ground open with explosives produces more noise than operating a wind turbine: 

From page 72

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This mish-mash of bad science is presented as a diagnosis - the individual he quotes is sick because of wind turbines, not because of some other medical issue. There's no doubt. It's a key assumption in the piece. It's simple to presume that Lloyd sees no fault in doing so, considering there's been a constant stream of this for several years. 

This, in his eyes, is a 'balanced' approach - the exclusion of all individuals, reports and experts who might fail to support his diagnosis - even to the extent that mining industry reports are being used to implicate wind energy. 

Sunday 21 June 2015

The Australian's 'Wind Turbine Health Researcher': not a health researcher

It's been an absurd couple of weeks for the wind energy industry. There's been a daily barrage of pseudoscience, feelings, antagonism and rage from small-in-numbers but strong-in-feelings opponents of renewable energy in Australia.

A few of them hold the highest office in the country, which isn't helpful.

Largely, the discourse has centred around anecdotal reports of wind farm impacts - and the creation of a new wind farm watchdog.

Here's a screenshot from an article published in The Australian:


The article features an interview with Mary Morris who, as the captions tell us, is a 'wind turbine health researcher':

'Mary Morris, who conducted the only Australian study into wind turbine health impacts accepted by the National Health and Medical Research Council, welcomed the government’s draft proposal to the crossbench. “It’s long overdue that there should be a proper mechanism for dealing with complaints and for conducting more rigorous testing at wind farms,” Ms Morris said'
On the 18th of June (the day before), Morris also featured in an article by Graham Lloyd:


"Mary Morris, who conducted one of the only studies accepted by the National Health and Medical Research Council, said she would welcome any undertakings by the federal government to increase supervision"

She seems like an expert source. She conducted a study in to health impacts, and that study was 'accepted' by the NHMRC. Out of curiosity, let's see what the NHMRC found from her study, when they did a systematic review of existing evidence, on page 221:

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Morris, M 2012. ‘Waterloo Wind Farm survey’. Available at: <http://www.wind-watch.org/news/>.

Affiliation/source of funds [2]
‘Mid North Wind Farm Awareness’ member

Internal Validity: 
Confounding subscale [13]
Comment on sources of confounding:
No details on responder characteristics or plausible confounders e.g.socioeconomic status, economic factors, age, gender, chronic disease and risk factors for chronic disease, occupation, education, employment, urbanisation, background noise, wind turbine visibility and terrain.

Bias subscale [14]
Comment on sources of bias:
There was no clear definition of what ‘affected by noise’ included. Self-reporting survey, hence no independent confirmation of claimed adverse effects. Differences between responders and non-responders were not assessed. Study intent was not masked for survey recipients.

Reporting subscale [17]
Comment on quality of reporting:
There was no clear description of main outcomes, participant characteristics, exposure level or any differences  between responders and non-responders

Chance [18] 
No data analysis.

Overall quality assessment (descriptive) [19] 
On the basis of the Internal Validity assessment made above, and the detailed critical appraisal of the study given in Table 7, this study is considered poor qualityfor the purpose of this review.
There is a high risk of exposure misclassification (time and personal characteristics criteria were notwell-defined), recallbias (study intent not masked), sample selection bias(40% response rate), confounding (no statistical adjustments were made), and outcome misclassification (non-validated survey questions)

Comments [28]
The study was quasi-scientific and of poor quality. The study design,poor execution and analysis prevent any firm conclusions from being drawn. The study has limited capacity to inform the assessment of wind turbine noise as a cause of adverse health effects.

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Not only was the study incredibly poor quality, the author is a wind farm opponent, and the study is only available from an anti-wind website.

Incidentally, the 'health researcher' in question also garnered some media coverage when sending out emails urging people to complain about wind farms:

'In the email, Ms Morris, who lives 17km from the wind farm, said Goyder Council had said it had received no written noise or health complaints regarding the Waterloo wind farm. 
It asked residents to send in a written complaint to both the Goyder and Clare and Gilbert Valley councils, outlining the impact of the wind farm on their health and hearing. 
"All it has to be is a simple letter stating that the noise and vibration is causing a serious disturbance to sleep and rest, and/or that people are becoming sick - mention elderly and frail people AND children as well, especially if this applies to you," the email said. 
"If you have already sent in a letter, send again with a cover note that you wish your submission to be considered as a formal complaint about the effects of the Waterloo wind farm."'

When it comes to giving bad science the veneer of veracity, this is a pretty common tactic - the usage of 'fake experts'. It's prevalent in climate change denial, but there are many examples of it in the 'wind turbine syndrome' world as well. As Skeptic Science outlines:

"These are individuals purporting to be experts but whose views are inconsistent with established knowledge. Fake experts have been used extensively by the tobacco industry who developed a strategy to recruit scientists who would counteract the growing evidence on the harmful effects of second-hand smoke. This tactic is often complemented by denigration of established experts, seeking to discredit their work. Tobacco denialists have frequently attacked Stanton Glantz, professor of medicine at the University of California, for his exposure of tobacco industry tactics, labelling his research 'junk science'."

It's one thing to leave out vital information, like what the NHMRC said about the quality of Morris' survey. But it's another thing entirely to label her an authoritative source. That goes well beyond the ways that bias tweaks everything we write - that's an outright falsehood.

Sure, it's necessary, when you're trying to give a manufactured disease some seemingly scientific substance, but it's also going to result in real harm to people seeking authoritative medical advice. We're going to see a lot more of this, in the coming weeks - each instance will feature a different page from the pseudoscience playbook.

Friday 19 June 2015

The Pope's encyclical is forcing climate skeptics to argue for scientific authority

Spar with any climate change denier on any comment thread or social media platform, and you'll reach this inevitable impasse:

Person A: 97% of climate scientists say it's real and caused by humans
Person B: Science is about evidence, not authority and consensus. 
Person A: But-
Person B: EINSTEIN

You can see the relatively simple progression of this argument in this wonderful discussion I had with US CNBC talk show host Joe Kernen. The idea is basically that credentials are meaningless - knowledge is a democracy. You don't need to be credentialed, to partake in the creation and assessment of research. It's for everyone.

As neatly elucidated by Asimov:


Last night the Pope released the full version of his encyclical on the environment. John Schellnhuber is Angela Merkel's climate advisor, and a leading climate change scientist. He says, of the encyclical: 

"It is very unique in the sense that it brings together two strong powers in the world, namely faith and moral and on the other reason and ingenuity. It’s an environmental crisis but also a social crisis. These two things together pose an enormous challenge. Only if these two things work together, faith and reason, can we overcome it"

It's momentous, because though it isn't a scientific analysis, the Pope is a significant and influential figure. He's the head of the Catholic church - not exactly the most progressive institution in the world. So, it means a lot that he's come out and not only accepted climate science, but openly urged action. 

The climate change denial community is not happy.

First, some tweets from Alex Epstein, who runs the 'I love Fossil Fuels' campaign, and 'consults' for the fossil fuel industry: 









There's something razor sharp in Epstein's (usually careful, stage-managed) tweets. It hurts. It feels like betrayal. It forces him to demand we seek leadership from scientists, not from religious figures.

Jeb Bush, a Republican candidate in the 2016 presidential election, rejected the Pope's advice on climate change. The video below shows a meeting of the Heartland Institute - the arguments deployed below essentially disregard the pope, on the basis



"I think Catholics should examine the evidence for themselves, and understand that the Holy Father is an authority on spiritual matters, not scientific ones" - Heartland Institute Rep

Jim Inhofe, featured in the video above and famous for bringing a snowball into a government hearing as evidence that climate change is fake, urge the pope to avoid expressing views as he's not a scientist:


The Galileo Movement, a Queensland climate denial collective whose name is inspired by a fantastical assumption of kinship with the astronomer persecuted by the church, have re-kindled centuries old hostilities.


It's so beautiful. In rejecting the Pope's assertions, the climate denial community is forced to adopt a tortured logic - discarding the primary principle of climate change denial: you can come up with your own science, and you shouldn't listen to those pesky scientists telling you otherwise.

The Pope actually is a scientist, but not a climate scientist, and even if he were, it's safer simply to refer to scientific authorities and meta-studies rather than a single individual, to establish the correctness of a theory. But people aren't turning to the Pope for analytical prowess on climate data. We're looking for unifying leadership on an issue that demands collective action. He cites the scientific consensus in his encyclical - he doesn't pretend to be a scientist.

In the process, the denial community is forced in to an enjoyably awkward position. It's only going to get worse over the coming days. Enjoy.